It’s 2028 and 1 Bitcoin is worth 1 million US dollars. If a luxury home was worth 1 million US dollars back in 2019, what would you estimate that this same luxury home is worth in USD and in BTC now? Does hyperbitcoinization require hyperinflation of government currencies and real estate?
Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet
Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots. A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC). Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea. When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust. However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:
Is Bitcoin money?
No. Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves: 1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own. As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get. You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there? 2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile. If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point: 3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away. For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast. On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad. One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy. If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due. Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.
BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in
Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense. Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run. See here Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well. Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money. Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand. Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control. It's also a national security risk... The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca. He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade. This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.
Currencies are based on trust
Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged? The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president. People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all. It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board. For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government." The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.
BTC is not gold
Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value. How do we know that? Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan. Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well. Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties: First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment. Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials. Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans. It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods. To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that. On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Means of Exchange: if people seriously start using BTC to buy pizzas, then this creates a real demand for the currency to accomplish the short-term exchanges. As we saw previously, I'm not personally sold on this one and it's currently a negligible fraction of overall demand.
Criminal uses: Probably the largest inbuilt advantage of BTC is that it's anonymous, and so a great way to launder money. Hacker gangs use BTC to demand ransom on cryptolocker type attacks because it's a shared way for an honest company to pay and for the criminals to receive money without going to jail.
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.
BTC is really risky
One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds. But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:
A critical software vulnerability is found in the BTC codebase, leading to a possible exploitation.
Xi Jinping decides he's had enough of rich people in China hiding their assets from him and bans BTC.
Some form of bank run takes hold for whatever reason. Because BTC wallets are uninsured, unlike regular banks, this compounds into a Black Tuesday style crash.
Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient
Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science. That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale. The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
BTC was estimated to use as much electricity as Belgium in 2019. It's hard to trace where the BTC mining comes from, but we can assume it has a huge carbon footprint.
A single transactions is necessarily expensive. A single transaction takes as much electricity as 800,000 VISA transactions, or watching 50,000 hours of youtube videos.
There is a large necessary tax on the transaction, since those checking the transaction extract a few BTC from it to be incentivized to do the work of checking it.
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
NightOwl Halloween Drop: Descriptions, Info, FAQ and Tips
This will be the last I'll post in-regards to NightOwl drops.From now on drop info will be posted in the NightOwlseeds subreddit We can only pin 2 posts at a time, and it can get confusing for new and existing users. I will be updating this thread throughout the day, check last edited.- NightOwl subreddit linked,
"My pack has a blank label, how do I know what I have?"
Those are the "Secret Owl Society" packs, they come labeled with UV ink. Daz almost always provides a small blacklight keychain, use it to reveal the pack name.
"Can I make multiple orders and get the tester pack?"
As long as the combined total is $250, and hasn't been shipped yet, then you get 1 tester pack ($500 for 2 tester packs). A new bit of info, you get another tester pack per $250 spent, dealer's choice.
No, you don't need TSB Premium to make a purchase. This was an option for paying members to get a chance to access the drop early. Nothing was exclusive to premium, everyone has access to all the strains.
"I got a confirmation email, it still says "processing", should I be worried?"
As long as you have a confirmation email (maybe a paid email), then there's nothing to worry about your order has been received.
When purchasing NightOwl seeds from The Seed Bazaar on 10/10 at 12 AM, WHATEVER IS IN YOUR CART, ISN'T RESERVED. NEW TIPS ITEMS ARE ADDED/UPDATED ONE BY ONE. THERE ARE TWO PAGES OF SEEDS. IF YOU HAVE AN ISSUE WITH YOUR ORDER EMAIL [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) PREMIUM ISN'T NECESSARY. It's best to purchase what you want FAST, everything is and always has been limited in quantity. Don't leave the item(s) in your cart and go check your plants and start some LST or a res change, don't go start cleaning your tent, CHECK YOUR ITEMS OUT FAST. Orders usually are combined to help with shipping, this should help with ordering fast, and comments have been enabled at checkout too 👍. Last tip, make an account ahead of time, and login. Should help speed up the checkout process. Price per pack is $50 USD. Website and packaging say 3 seeds but typically get 5 no option for other pack sizes, plus free international shipping. This is the LAST SCHEDULED DROP from NightOwl till Valentine's day, which is expected to have the new F4 photo to auto cultivars. This is if there aren't any delays or setbacks in the timeline. The new NightOwl Sweater doesn't have a set date yet, could be some time in November. Chocolates are for the US only, food and customs don't go together. I THINK Daz said put it in the comments if you'd like the chocolate and he'd get back to you to figure out how to ship it (might have to pay for packaging and postage). Only If there are chocolates or ashtrays left, Daz will offer them up as an item on the seed bazaar for the cost of shipping which is usually around $15. Seedopoly boards are being sent out, pieces won't go out till the New Year, and the prizes are US only.
Spend $250 get an UNRELEASED TESTER PACK
Spend $500 get 2 UNRELEASED TESTER PACKS
Tester packs are labeled, but unknown till you receive it.
Scratch Card Game
Match the Mummies, scratch card game *WHILE SUPPLIES LAST, 1st COME 1st SERVED\*
Zamaldelica Express x Cosmic Queen 75/25 Sativa/Indica 75-80 days from sprout A long time coming, the Galaxy Brain is finally here! These large, branchy plants are covered with frost from the stems up! Piercingly sweet fruit scents and mouth coating flavors accompany a soaring euphoric head high, along with a relaxing body effect that doesn’t hamper your daily activities. I’m expecting this one to become a staple in the autoflower connoisseur’s garden. The reversal used was selected from over 40 Cosmic Queens and was extremely sativa dominant. I used this same expression for an unreleased seed run a few years back and she produced some of the most exquisitely beautiful and flavorful flowers. The female used was extremely pungent, with sappy and bulbous resin heads that stink up the whole room when burst. She also had extremely fat calyxes, providing massive amounts of surface area for the resin heads to call home.
Fugue State x Cosmic Queen True F1 Hybrid Limited Edition 75/25 Sativa/Indica 75-85 days from sprout 2-4 ounces average 3 Feminized Seeds Large, easy growing sativa dominant plants with heavy branching and intense crystal production. Super sweet, peppery, and buttery flavors accompany an intensely uplifting head high and an electrically charged body feel. The Spotless Mind name gives a tip of the cap to the Amnesia Haze in her heritage, which carries through to this cross. Overindulge and you will find yourself becoming forgetful and may experience recollection difficulties, but in a fun way. She has also been known to encourage bedroom activities, making for a nice nightstand stash. If you are looking for an anytime sativa that won’t make your mind race aimlessly, look no further. The same reversal that was used for Galaxy Brain and Cosmic Apprentice was also used for this Limited Edition.
Blue Microverse F4 x Cosmic Queen F4 *Quick Finish* 50/50 Sativa/Indica 65-75 days from sprout 1.5-3 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect medium to large plants with creamy blue raspberry lemonade golf ball buds running along the side branches, leading up to chunky top colas all wrapped in gooey, long-stemmed trichomes. Another beautiful true F1 hybrid with a 50/50 blend for a balanced, comforting mind and body experience. Great for relaxing after work when you’re ready to start winding down. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency while keeping the stretch down. **Be sure to keep airflow and humidity in check during the final few weeks, as the flower density can lead to bud rot in the wrong conditions. **
Strawberry Nuggets F4 x Cosmic Queen F4 *Quick Finish* 40/60 Sativa/Indica 65-75 days from sprout 1.5-3 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect medium-sized bushes with very sturdy branches that reach up and fill the canopy alongside the main cola. Rock hard nugs of pinks, purples, emerald, and blue hues will create all the bag appeal you could ask for, with a sweet cheesy strawberry funk that will have you smelling the bag again and again. Another true F1 and the heaviest indica hybrid of the lot, ranging from therapeutic to narcotic depending on your intake. Perfect for a dessert smoke or nightcap to relax your body before sailing off into the dream world. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency while keeping the stretch down. ***Be sure to keep an eye on these during early as the Strawberry Nuggets line can throw a ball or two during sexing, right where the side branches meet the main stem. It is rare, but can be brought about by stress or too strong an application of nutes during the sexing stage and seems to be most common when using humic acid. If you do see a ball pop up it can be removed and the plant will continue on fully female to finish her life. Also, keep airflow and humidity in check during the final few weeks, as the flower density can lead to bud rot in the wrong conditions. **\*
(Chem City Blues x Chemdogging) X Cosmic Queen F4 *Super Sativa* 60/40 Sativa/Indica 75-85 days from sprout 2-4 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect large, easy growing plants with satellite branches that reach up to the shoulders of the canopy, but be sure to stake her before she goes too far into flower or she will buckle under the weight of her blooms. The piercing old school perfumes she puts off range from skunky blueberries to creamy chems, and her soda can cola structure is sure to impress! This F1 polyhybrid is recommended for heavier smokers and those looking for help with pain management, and can be a bit too much too fast for the uninitiated. Carbon filters are always a must indoors, and best to make sure they’re in proper working order before running these. The Cosmic Queen reversal used for this cross was what I consider the super sativa expression of CQ. Tall, stretchy, thinner leaves, incredibly sweet resin, bag appeal, pest, and pm resistant with an elongated bud structure that is excellent for outdoors and in. Don’t miss out!
Mango Smile x Cosmic Queen F4 *Super Sativa* 70/30 Sativa/Indica 75-85 days from sprout 2-4 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect large, easy growing plants with sturdy branching and individual bud sites running their length, met with a small cola cluster at their end. This true F1 hybrid has beautiful tropical citrus flavors that will send you off on an island vacation, while the effects will leave you physically and mentally heightened and ready for anything the day throws your way! Extremely pleasant all day/everyday smoke, sure to be a crowd-pleaser. The Cosmic Queen reversal used for this cross was what I consider the super sativa expression of CQ. Tall, stretchy, thinner leaves, incredibly sweet resin, bag appeal, pest, and pm resistant with an elongated bud structure that is excellent for outdoors and in. Don’t miss out!
Forum Stomper x Cosmic Queen F4 *Quick Finish* 60/40 Sativa/Indica 65-75 days from sprout 1.5-3 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect medium-sized bushes with stout branches that reach up and form a canopy surrounding the main cola. Incredibly resinous chunky white nugs and dark forest green foliage fade to the deepest purples and blacks under cooler temperatures. She will have true F1 hybrid vigor and produce a delicious mix of forum cookies and cosmic cream flavors along with an abundance of “fall off the stalk” gland heads that will put everything else around your trimbin to shame. Effects are stoney, both physically and mentally, without the couchlock. She could easily fill the role of all day/everyday smoke if you have a decent tolerance already. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency while keeping the stretch down.
Super Orange Haze F4 X Cosmic Queen F4 *Super Sativa* 70/30 Sativa/Indica 70-80 days from sprout 1.5-3 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect medium-sized, easy growing plants with shorter side branches that reach about half the height of the main cola. Floral and sour citrus flavors with an uplifting effect that is great for early morning and afternoon indulgences. Bag appeal is also of no concern, as this true F1 hybrid has it in spades! The Cosmic Queen reversal used for this cross was what I consider the super sativa expression of CQ. Tall, stretchy, thinner leaves, incredibly sweet resin, bag appeal, pest, and pm resistant with an elongated bud structure that is excellent for outdoors and in. Don’t miss out!
Toof Decay x Cosmic Queen F4 *Quick Finish* 50/50 Sativa/Indica 65-75 days from sprout 1.5-3 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect medium-sized bushes with stout branches that almost reach the height of the main cola. Extremely dense buds covered in sweet bakery and candy-flavored resin that will leave you wanting more. Cooler temperatures can bring out some beautiful fall colors that only add to her visual appeal. Stoney without the narcotic effect, great for an afternoon delight or as a post-meal treat. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency to this true F1, while keeping the stretch down. ***Be sure to keep an eye on these during early as the Toof Decay line can throw a ball or two during sexing, right where the side branches meet the main stem. It is rare, but can be brought about by stress or too strong an application of nutes during the sexing stage and seems to be most common when using humic acid. If you do see a ball pop up it can be removed and the plant will continue on fully female to finish her life. Also, keep airflow and humidity in check during the final few weeks, as the flower density can lead to bud rot in the wrong conditions. **\*
Creme de la Soul F1 x Cosmic Queen F4 Quick Finish 50/50 Sativa/Indica 65-75 days from sprout 1.5-3 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect medium plants with stout satellite branches reaching up to the shoulders of the main colas. Dense nugs covered in oily resin ranging in smells from red berries and sneakers to creamy grapes, this F1 polyhybrid has a lot to offer! Cooler temperatures can bring on fades of reds and purples, making her an absolute beauty in her final days. She has a balanced physical and mental high, leaning towards the stoney end of the spectrum, and will make for a great evening smoke. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency while keeping the stretch down. Be sure to keep airflow and humidity in check during the final few weeks, as the flower density can lead to bud rot.
Supernatural OG x Cosmic Queen F4 Super Sativa 70/30 Sativa/Indica 75-85 days from sprout 2-4 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect large, easy growing plants with sturdy branching and individual bud sites running their length, met with a medium cola cluster at their ends, with a large main cola. This F1 poly hybrid is chock full of hazey goodness! Flavors range from effervescent lemon-lime, to heavy juniper laced gin and tonic. The juniper flavors are my personal favorite and tend to kick my ass and get me super stoney, while the citrusy ones are more motivational. There’s a variety of outstanding expressions to be found in these, all on the sativa end of the spectrum. The Cosmic Queen reversal used for this cross was what I consider the super sativa expression of CQ. Tall, stretchy, thinner leaves, incredibly sweet resin, bag appeal, pest and pm resistant with an elongated bud structure that is excellent for outdoors and in. Don’t miss out! Blessed by Hoodoo Moses I
Cosmic Apprentice (No Video)
Wizard’s Apprentice F4 x Cosmic Queen F4 Sativa 75 days from sprout "Ready to get heady? Crossing a big-bodied sativa dominant Wizard’s Apprentice to the rush inducing Cosmic Queen resulted in a whole new variety that will keep your head in the clouds! Large plants with denser buds than Cosmic Queen, an overload of frost, and nostril piercing neon sweet and hazey scents finishing right around 75 days. If you’re into uplifting sativa effects with chunkier buds then she is definitely worth checking out."
Wizard’s Apprentice F4 x Tyrone Stomper F6 Indica 70 days from sprout A long time coming, the Cheech Biggums is sure to impress! Using a heavy Cheech Wizard dominant Wizard’s Apprentice mated to the ever-impressive Tyrone Stomper will produce medium to large, extra vigorous true F1 hybrids with fruity OG gas flavors and an occasional piney/floral expression in a quick 70ish days from sprout. Picture of Post
February Drop Info
Copied from Daz's IG post.
Thank you all for your patience with me these past few weeks. I've been handling a lot of business behind the scenes in preparation for big things next year. 2020 was the year of staying off the radar with most of my big projects and not drawing any unnecessary attention. 2021 is the year of getting licensed and really showing you what it's all about! Thank you for your trust and faith in me during my overly cautious past few months/years. I won't let you down.🙏🌱🦉🌱🙏New photo to autos scheduled for the first half of 2021: Pre '98 Bubba Kush x Auto Skywalker F4 Dosidos x Forum Stomper F4 Purple Punch x Forum Stomper F4 Sunset Sherbet x Forum Stomper F4
Dont worry if you FOMO. You are not going to be millionaires anyway.
BTC is heading to new ATH. Many new people are stepping up the train, and many of them are posting questions such as "how to acquire most bitcoin ?", or "Is it still possible to have 1 BTC", or "what should I do to secure my BTC ?", and the worst: "Should I put all my savings in BTC" ? ... Those are some legit questions, but if you are asking yourself those questions, you are probably about to burn yourself and becoming a future millionaire has maybe struck your head. Let's just do some quick math to show you that you will NOT become a millionaire. Following the BTC pattern, I saw many youtubers predicting that BTC price is heading toward 200k USD in one or two years. This is a very optimistic prediction. But let's take it to have the most favorable scenario. So if you are a broke ass newcomer like most of the people here, you can barely afford 1BTC right now. If you can, your net profit in 1-2 years will be roughly 180k USD. This is a very good income in only two years. But still, you are not a millionaire. If you want to be a millionaire, you would need to buy at least 5-6 BTC right now, which you cannot afford (even with all your savings) if you are part of the people I mentioned above, and like more than 90% of the population. There are only a few dudes in the world who became multi-millionaire with BTC because they bought a lot when it was below 1K USD. Since then, most of the people are just securing a good retirement plan (even if some of them burned everything in a Lambo...). SO what should you do ? Is investing in BTC really worth it, even if you will not buy a Lambo? I still believe yes. If the price of BTC is multiplied by 15 in the next two years, your investment, even as small as it, will also be multiplied by 15. This is still a good income. So, don’t' burn all your savings, BTC can still only go to 20K then dump again. And take your time to only invest what you can afford to lose. TL;DR: The times when it was highly profitable to buy BTC are gone a long time ago. Stack stats with what you have, buy the dips when you can, and hodl. EDIT: In other words, if you are a newcomer, you should read this first.
A common sentiment is brewing online; a shared desire for the internet that might have been. After decades of corporate encroachment, you don't need to be a power user to realize that something has gone very wrong. In the early days of the internet, the future was bright. In that future, when you sent an instant message, it traveled directly to the recipient. When you needed to pay a friend, you announced a transfer of value to their public key. When an app was missing a feature you wanted, you opened up the source code and implemented it. When you took a picture on your phone, it was immediately encrypted and backed up to storage that you controlled. In that future, people would laugh at the idea of having to authenticate themselves to some corporation before doing these things. What did we get instead? Rather than a network of human-sized communities, we have a handful of enormous commons, each controlled by a faceless corporate entity. Hey user, want to send a message? You can, but we'll store a copy of it indefinitely, unencrypted, for our preference-learning algorithms to pore over; how else could we slap targeted ads on every piece of content you see? Want to pay a friend? You can—in our Monopoly money. Want a new feature? Submit a request to our Support Center and we'll totally maybe think about it. Want to backup a photo? You can—inside our walled garden, which only we (and the NSA, of course) can access. Just be careful what you share, because merely locking you out of your account and deleting all your data is far from the worst thing we could do. You rationalize this: "MEGACORP would never do such a thing; it would be bad for business." But we all know, at some level, that this state of affairs, this inversion of power, is not merely "unfortunate" or "suboptimal" – No. It is degrading. Even if MEGACORP were purely benevolent, it is degrading that we must ask its permission to talk to our friends; that we must rely on it to safeguard our treasured memories; that our digital lives are completely beholden to those who seek only to extract value from us. At the root of this issue is the centralization of data. MEGACORP can surveil you—because your emails and video chats flow through their servers. And MEGACORP can control you—because they hold your data hostage. But centralization is a solution to a technical problem: How can we make the user's data accessible from anywhere in the world, on any device? For a long time, no alternative solution to this problem was forthcoming. Today, thanks to a confluence of established techniques and recent innovations, we have solved the accessibility problem without resorting to centralization. Hashing, encryption, and erasure encoding got us most of the way, but one barrier remained: incentives. How do you incentivize an anonymous stranger to store your data? Earlier protocols like BitTorrent worked around this limitation by relying on altruism, tit-for-tat requirements, or "points" – in other words, nothing you could pay your electric bill with. Finally, in 2009, a solution appeared: Bitcoin. Not long after, Sia was born. Cryptography has unleashed the latent power of the internet by enabling interactions between mutually-distrustful parties. Sia harnesses this power to turn the cloud storage market into a proper marketplace, where buyers and sellers can transact directly, with no intermediaries, anywhere in the world. No more silos or walled gardens: your data is encrypted, so it can't be spied on, and it's stored on many servers, so no single entity can hold it hostage. Thanks to projects like Sia, the internet is being re-decentralized. Sia began its life as a startup, which means it has always been subjected to two competing forces: the ideals of its founders, and the profit motive inherent to all businesses. Its founders have taken great pains to never compromise on the former, but this often threatened the company's financial viability. With the establishment of the Sia Foundation, this tension is resolved. The Foundation, freed of the obligation to generate profit, is a pure embodiment of the ideals from which Sia originally sprung. The goals and responsibilities of the Foundation are numerous: to maintain core Sia protocols and consensus code; to support developers building on top of Sia and its protocols; to promote Sia and facilitate partnerships in other spheres and communities; to ensure that users can easily acquire and safely store siacoins; to develop network scalability solutions; to implement hardforks and lead the community through them; and much more. In a broader sense, its mission is to commoditize data storage, making it cheap, ubiquitous, and accessible to all, without compromising privacy or performance. Sia is a perfect example of how we can achieve better living through cryptography. We now begin a new chapter in Sia's history. May our stewardship lead it into a bright future.
Today, we are proposing the creation of the Sia Foundation: a new non-profit entity that builds and supports distributed cloud storage infrastructure, with a specific focus on the Sia storage platform. What follows is an informal overview of the Sia Foundation, covering two major topics: how the Foundation will be funded, and what its funds will be used for.
The Sia Foundation will be structured as a non-profit entity incorporated in the United States, likely a 501(c)(3) organization or similar. The actions of the Foundation will be constrained by its charter, which formalizes the specific obligations and overall mission outlined in this document. The charter will be updated on an annual basis to reflect the current goals of the Sia community. The organization will be operated by a board of directors, initially comprising Luke Champine as President and Eddie Wang as Chairman. Luke Champine will be leaving his position at Nebulous to work at the Foundation full-time, and will seek to divest his shares of Nebulous stock along with other potential conflicts of interest. Neither Luke nor Eddie personally own any siafunds or significant quantities of siacoin.
The primary source of funding for the Foundation will come from a new block subsidy. Following a hardfork, 30 KS per block will be allocated to the "Foundation Fund," continuing in perpetuity. The existing 30 KS per block miner reward is not affected. Additionally, one year's worth of block subsidies (approximately 1.57 GS) will be allocated to the Fund immediately upon activation of the hardfork. As detailed below, the Foundation will provably burn any coins that it cannot meaningfully spend. As such, the 30 KS subsidy should be viewed as a maximum. This allows the Foundation to grow alongside Sia without requiring additional hardforks. The Foundation will not be funded to any degree by the possession or sale of siafunds. Siafunds were originally introduced as a means of incentivizing growth, and we still believe in their effectiveness: a siafund holder wants to increase the amount of storage on Sia as much as possible. While the Foundation obviously wants Sia to succeed, its driving force should be its charter. Deriving significant revenue from siafunds would jeopardize the Foundation's impartiality and focus. Ultimately, we want the Foundation to act in the best interests of Sia, not in growing its own budget.
The Foundation inherits a great number of responsibilities from Nebulous. Each quarter, the Foundation will publish the progress it has made over the past quarter, and list the responsibilities it intends to prioritize over the coming quarter. This will be accompanied by a financial report, detailing each area of expenditure over the past quarter, and forecasting expenditures for the coming quarter. Below, we summarize some of the myriad responsibilities towards which the Foundation is expected to allocate its resources.
Maintain and enhance core Sia software
Arguably, this is the most important responsibility of the Foundation. At the heart of Sia is its consensus algorithm: regardless of other differences, all Sia software must agree upon the content and rules of the blockchain. It is therefore crucial that the algorithm be stewarded by an entity that is accountable to the community, transparent in its decision-making, and has no profit motive or other conflicts of interest. Accordingly, Sia’s consensus functionality will no longer be directly maintained by Nebulous. Instead, the Foundation will release and maintain an implementation of a "minimal Sia full node," comprising the Sia consensus algorithm and P2P networking code. The source code will be available in a public repository, and signed binaries will be published for each release. Other parties may use this code to provide alternative full node software. For example, Nebulous may extend the minimal full node with wallet, renter, and host functionality. The source code of any such implementation may be submitted to the Foundation for review. If the code passes review, the Foundation will provide "endorsement signatures" for the commit hash used and for binaries compiled internally by the Foundation. Specifically, these signatures assert that the Foundation believes the software contains no consensus-breaking changes or other modifications to imported Foundation code. Endorsement signatures and Foundation-compiled binaries may be displayed and distributed by the receiving party, along with an appropriate disclaimer. A minimal full node is not terribly useful on its own; the wallet, renter, host, and other extensions are what make Sia a proper developer platform. Currently, the only implementations of these extensions are maintained by Nebulous. The Foundation will contract Nebulous to ensure that these extensions continue to receive updates and enhancements. Later on, the Foundation intends to develop its own implementations of these extensions and others. As with the minimal node software, these extensions will be open source and available in public repositories for use by any Sia node software. With the consensus code now managed by the Foundation, the task of implementing and orchestrating hardforks becomes its responsibility as well. When the Foundation determines that a hardfork is necessary (whether through internal discussion or via community petition), a formal proposal will be drafted and submitted for public review, during which arguments for and against the proposal may be submitted to a public repository. During this time, the hardfork code will be implemented, either by Foundation employees or by external contributors working closely with the Foundation. Once the implementation is finished, final arguments will be heard. The Foundation board will then vote whether to accept or reject the proposal, and announce their decision along with appropriate justification. Assuming the proposal was accepted, the Foundation will announce the block height at which the hardfork will activate, and will subsequently release source code and signed binaries that incorporate the hardfork code. Regardless of the Foundation's decision, it is the community that ultimately determines whether a fork is accepted or rejected – nothing can change that. Foundation node software will never automatically update, so all forks must be explicitly adopted by users. Furthermore, the Foundation will provide replay and wipeout protection for its hard forks, protecting other chains from unintended or malicious reorgs. Similarly, the Foundation will ensure that any file contracts formed prior to a fork activation will continue to be honored on both chains until they expire. Finally, the Foundation also intends to pursue scalability solutions for the Sia blockchain. In particular, work has already begun on an implementation of Utreexo, which will greatly reduce the space requirements of fully-validating nodes (allowing a full node to be run on a smartphone) while increasing throughput and decreasing initial sync time. A hardfork implementing Utreexo will be submitted to the community as per the process detailed above. As this is the most important responsibility of the Foundation, it will receive a significant portion of the Foundation’s budget, primarily in the form of developer salaries and contracting agreements.
Support community services
We intend to allocate 25% of the Foundation Fund towards the community. This allocation will be held and disbursed in the form of siacoins, and will pay for grants, bounties, hackathons, and other community-driven endeavours. Any community-run service, such as a Skynet portal, explorer or web wallet, may apply to have its costs covered by the Foundation. Upon approval, the Foundation will reimburse expenses incurred by the service, subject to the exact terms agreed to. The intent of these grants is not to provide a source of income, but rather to make such services "break even" for their operators, so that members of the community can enrich the Sia ecosystem without worrying about the impact on their own finances.
Ensure easy acquisition and storage of siacoins
Most users will acquire their siacoins via an exchange. The Foundation will provide support to Sia-compatible exchanges, and pursue relevant integrations at its discretion, such as Coinbase's new Rosetta standard. The Foundation may also release DEX software that enables trading cryptocurrencies without the need for a third party. (The Foundation itself will never operate as a money transmitter.) Increasingly, users are storing their cryptocurrency on hardware wallets. The Foundation will maintain the existing Ledger Nano S integration, and pursue further integrations at its discretion. Of course, all hardware wallets must be paired with software running on a computer or smartphone, so the Foundation will also develop and/or maintain client-side wallet software, including both full-node wallets and "lite" wallets. Community-operated wallet services, i.e. web wallets, may be funded via grants. Like core software maintenance, this responsibility will be funded in the form of developer salaries and contracting agreements.
Protect the ecosystem
When it comes to cryptocurrency security, patching software vulnerabilities is table stakes; there are significant legal and social threats that we must be mindful of as well. As such, the Foundation will earmark a portion of its fund to defend the community from legal action. The Foundation will also safeguard the network from 51% attacks and other threats to network security by implementing softforks and/or hardforks where necessary. The Foundation also intends to assist in the development of a new FOSS software license, and to solicit legal memos on various Sia-related matters, such as hosting in the United States and the EU. In a broader sense, the establishment of the Foundation makes the ecosystem more robust by transferring core development to a more neutral entity. Thanks to its funding structure, the Foundation will be immune to various forms of pressure that for-profit companies are susceptible to.
Drive adoption of Sia
Although the overriding goal of the Foundation is to make Sia the best platform it can be, all that work will be in vain if no one uses the platform. There are a number of ways the Foundation can promote Sia and get it into the hands of potential users and developers. In-person conferences are understandably far less popular now, but the Foundation can sponsor and/or participate in virtual conferences. (In-person conferences may be held in the future, permitting circumstances.) Similarly, the Foundation will provide prizes for hackathons, which may be organized by community members, Nebulous, or the Foundation itself. Lastly, partnerships with other companies in the cryptocurrency space—or the cloud storage space—are a great way to increase awareness of Sia. To handle these responsibilities, one of the early priorities of the Foundation will be to hire a marketing director.
The Foundation Fund will be controlled by a multisig address. Each member of the Foundation's board will control one of the signing keys, with the signature threshold to be determined once the final composition of the board is known. (This threshold may also be increased or decreased if the number of board members changes.) Additionally, one timelocked signing key will be controlled by David Vorick. This key will act as a “dead man’s switch,” to be used in the event of an emergency that prevents Foundation board members from reaching the signature threshold. The timelock ensures that this key cannot be used unless the Foundation fails to sign a transaction for several months. On the 1st of each month, the Foundation will use its keys to transfer all siacoins in the Fund to two new addresses. The first address will be controlled by a high-security hot wallet, and will receive approximately one month's worth of Foundation expenditures. The second address, receiving the remaining siacoins, will be a modified version of the source address: specifically, it will increase the timelock on David Vorick's signing key by one month. Any other changes to the set of signing keys, such as the arrival or departure of board members, will be incorporated into this address as well. The Foundation Fund is allocated in SC, but many of the Foundation's expenditures must be paid in USD or other fiat currency. Accordingly, the Foundation will convert, at its discretion, a portion of its monthly withdrawals to fiat currency. We expect this conversion to be primarily facilitated by private "OTC" sales to accredited investors. The Foundation currently has no plans to speculate in cryptocurrency or other assets. Finally, it is important that the Foundation adds value to the Sia platform well in excess of the inflation introduced by the block subsidy. For this reason, the Foundation intends to provably burn, on a quarterly basis, any coins that it cannot allocate towards any justifiable expense. In other words, coins will be burned whenever doing so provides greater value to the platform than any other use. Furthermore, the Foundation will cap its SC treasury at 5% of the total supply, and will cap its USD treasury at 4 years’ worth of predicted expenses. Addendum: Hardfork Timeline We would like to see this proposal finalized and accepted by the community no later than September 30th. A new version of siad, implementing the hardfork, will be released no later than October 15th. The hardfork will activate at block 293220, which is expected to occur around 12pm EST on January 1st, 2021.
Addendum: Inflation specifics The total supply of siacoins as of January 1st, 2021 will be approximately 45.243 GS. The initial subsidy of 1.57 GS thus increases the supply by 3.47%, and the total annual inflation in 2021 will be at most 10.4% (if zero coins are burned). In 2022, total annual inflation will be at most 6.28%, and will steadily decrease in subsequent years.
We see the establishment of the Foundation as an important step in the maturation of the Sia project. It provides the ecosystem with a sustainable source of funding that can be exclusively directed towards achieving Sia's ambitious goals. Compared to other projects with far deeper pockets, Sia has always punched above its weight; once we're on equal footing, there's no telling what we'll be able to achieve. Nevertheless, we do not propose this change lightly, and have taken pains to ensure that the Foundation will act in accordance with the ideals that this community shares. It will operate transparently, keep inflation to a minimum, and respect the user's fundamental role in decentralized systems. We hope that everyone in the community will consider this proposal carefully, and look forward to a productive discussion.
You've probably been hearing a lot about Bitcoin recently and are wondering what's the big deal? Most of your questions should be answered by the resources below but if you have additional questions feel free to ask them in the comments. It all started with the release of the release of Satoshi Nakamoto's whitepaper however that will probably go over the head of most readers so we recommend the following videos for a good starting point for understanding how bitcoin works and a little about its long term potential:
Limited Supply - There will only ever be 21,000,000 bitcoins created and they are issued in a predictable fashion, you can view the inflation schedule here. Once they are all issued Bitcoin will be truly deflationary. The halving countdown can be found here.
Open source - Bitcoin code is fully auditable. You can read the source code yourself here.
Accountable - The public ledger is transparent, all transactions are seen by everyone.
Decentralized - Bitcoin is globally distributed across thousands of nodes with no single point of failure and as such can't be shut down similar to how Bittorrent works. You can even run a node on a Raspberry Pi.
Censorship resistant - No one can prevent you from interacting with the bitcoin network and no one can censor, alter or block transactions that they disagree with, see Operation Chokepoint.
Push system - There are no chargebacks in bitcoin because only the person who owns the address where the bitcoins reside has the authority to move them.
Low fee scaling - On chain transaction fees depend on network demand and how much priority you wish to assign to the transaction. Most wallets calculate on chain fees automatically but you can view current fees here and mempool activity here. On chain fees may rise occasionally due to network demand, however instant micropayments that do not require confirmations are happening via the Lightning Network, a second layer scaling solution currently rolling out on the Bitcoin mainnet.
Borderless - No country can stop it from going in/out, even in areas currently unserved by traditional banking as the ledger is globally distributed.
Portable - Bitcoins are digital so they are easier to move than cash or gold. They can even be transported by simply memorizing a string of words for wallet recovery (while cool this method is generally not recommended due to potential for insecure key generation by inexperienced users. Hardware wallets are the preferred method for new users due to ease of use and additional security).
Bitcoin.org and BuyBitcoinWorldwide.com are helpful sites for beginners. You can buy or sell any amount of bitcoin (even just a few dollars worth) and there are several easy methods to purchase bitcoin with cash, credit card or bank transfer. Some of the more popular resources are below, also check out the bitcoinity exchange resources for a larger list of options for purchases.
Here is a listing of local ATMs. If you would like your paycheck automatically converted to bitcoin use Bitwage. Note: Bitcoins are valued at whatever market price people are willing to pay for them in balancing act of supply vs demand. Unlike traditional markets, bitcoin markets operate 24 hours per day, 365 days per year. Preev is a useful site that that shows how much various denominations of bitcoin are worth in different currencies. Alternatively you can just Google "1 bitcoin in (your local currency)".
Securing your bitcoins
With bitcoin you can "Be your own bank" and personally secure your bitcoins OR you can use third party companies aka "Bitcoin banks" which will hold the bitcoins for you.
If you prefer to "Be your own bank" and have direct control over your coins without having to use a trusted third party, then you will need to create your own wallet and keep it secure. If you want easy and secure storage without having to learn computer security best practices, then a hardware wallet such as the Trezor, Ledger or ColdCard is recommended. Alternatively there are many software wallet options to choose from here depending on your use case.
If you prefer to let third party "Bitcoin banks" manage your coins, try Gemini but be aware you may not be in control of your private keys in which case you would have to ask permission to access your funds and be exposed to third party risk.
Note: For increased security, use Two Factor Authentication (2FA) everywhere it is offered, including email! 2FA requires a second confirmation code to access your account making it much harder for thieves to gain access. Google Authenticator and Authy are the two most popular 2FA services, download links are below. Make sure you create backups of your 2FA codes.
As mentioned above, Bitcoin is decentralized, which by definition means there is no official website or Twitter handle or spokesperson or CEO. However, all money attracts thieves. This combination unfortunately results in scammers running official sounding names or pretending to be an authority on YouTube or social media. Many scammers throughout the years have claimed to be the inventor of Bitcoin. Websites like bitcoin(dot)com and the btc subreddit are active scams. Almost all altcoins (shitcoins) are marketed heavily with big promises but are really just designed to separate you from your bitcoin. So be careful: any resource, including all linked in this document, may in the future turn evil. Don't trust, verify. Also as they say in our community "Not your keys, not your coins".
Where can I spend bitcoins?
Check out spendabit or bitcoin directory for millions of merchant options. Also you can spend bitcoin anywhere visa is accepted with bitcoin debit cards such as the CashApp card. Some other useful site are listed below.
Mining bitcoins can be a fun learning experience, but be aware that you will most likely operate at a loss. Newcomers are often advised to stay away from mining unless they are only interested in it as a hobby similar to folding at home. If you want to learn more about mining you can read more here. Still have mining questions? The crew at /BitcoinMining would be happy to help you out. If you want to contribute to the bitcoin network by hosting the blockchain and propagating transactions you can run a full node using this setup guide. If you would prefer to keep it simple there are several good options. You can view the global node distribution here.
Just like any other form of money, you can also earn bitcoins by being paid to do a job.
You can also earn bitcoins by participating as a market maker on JoinMarket by allowing users to perform CoinJoin transactions with your bitcoins for a small fee (requires you to already have some bitcoins.
The following is a short list of ongoing projects that might be worth taking a look at if you are interested in current development in the bitcoin space.
One Bitcoin is quite large (hundreds of £/$/€) so people often deal in smaller units. The most common subunits are listed below:
one bitcoin is equal to 100 million satoshis
1,000 per bitcoin
used as default unit in recent Electrum wallet releases
1,000,000 per bitcoin
colloquial "slang" term for microbitcoin (μBTC)
100,000,000 per bitcoin
smallest unit in bitcoin, named after the inventor
For example, assuming an arbitrary exchange rate of $10000 for one Bitcoin, a $10 meal would equal:
For more information check out the Bitcoin units wiki. Still have questions? Feel free to ask in the comments below or stick around for our weekly Mentor Monday thread. If you decide to post a question in /Bitcoin, please use the search bar to see if it has been answered before, and remember to follow the community rules outlined on the sidebar to receive a better response. The mods are busy helping manage our community so please do not message them unless you notice problems with the functionality of the subreddit. Note: This is a community created FAQ. If you notice anything missing from the FAQ or that requires clarification you can edit it here and it will be included in the next revision pending approval. Welcome to the Bitcoin community and the new decentralized economy!
Where do I find trusted places to buy BTC or other cryptocurrency?
Where do I find trusted places to buy BTC or other cryptocurrency? Preferably a place where I can just pay using a Visa debit card or PayPal. When I just search for sites to buy BTC most of the sites look really shady. I am a beginner in all this. I want to start buying some crypto currency. I plan on maybe buying USD 100 worth every month or quarter or something like that. What is a good way of going about this? I have read a lot of articles about this on sites like https://bitcoin.org, etc. But I think it is really difficult to figure out what is actually good info and also without having to spend days and days just reading stuff. I want to get my toes wet now.
Some Bitcoin Analysts and Prediction Today and Yesterday & Why "It's not the Price, Dummy"
This is just for fun, I generally have no strong feelings toward bitcoin price (I'm just fundamentally against zero-sum get rich schemes). But today I decided to do a little bitcoin search in news.google.com and see what today's bulls were predicting in 2018. Side note, almost all of the news articles came from crypto sites. I tried my best to stay away from them. Farming magazine telling you agriculture is the future isn't exactly shocking. To people who invest, please don't consider this as a prediction that price will fall. I'm not astute or smart enough to predict either way. The only possible use is to make sure you are more skeptic regarding predictions. Keep in mind, a rich CEO or consultant can lose 100 million and not really affect his life that much, but a 10k or 100k lose for some people can be devastating. And remember, some of these rich hedge managers don't believe their own bullshit, and hopefully, some of these quotes will emulate that. (Note, I won't waste time linking them all, but by quoting them directly, it should be easy to google) (another side note, I didn't purposely search out specific names. I went by the first names I came across, and only ignoring those that I couldn't find anything regarding crypto in past years)
Present: Business Inside: Bitcoin is like 'digital gold' and won't be used the same as a traditional currency in at least 5 years, billionaire investor Mike Novogratz says Past: On Nov, 2017, he said: "Bitcoin could ‘easily’ reach $40,000 by the end of 2018, hedge fund legend Novogratz says" 2018: "Michael Novogratz calls a bottom in cryptocurrencies" (it wasn't) Novogratz started a crypto funding in 2018. First 9 months "Mike Novogratz’s Crypto Trading Desk Lost $136 Million in Nine Months" (Bloomberg). Quarter 4: "Galaxy Digital Posts $32.9 Million in Net Loss for Q4 2019". Feb 2020 "Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital Slashes 15% Staff"
Present: "For Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, the bullish atmosphere had been reinforced, and further gains were more likely than ever. “There are literally only two resistances left on the #bitcoin chart - 14,000 and then the old all-time high at 20,000,” he tweeted." In a tweet today, he said, "Bitcoin is eating the world... It has become a supermassive black hole that is sucking in everything around it and destroying it. This narrative is only going to grow over the next 18 months. You see, gold is breaking down versus bitcoin...and gold investors will flip to BTC" Past: 2014: "Put them in the same kind of equation we get a value of bitcoin and that value is a million dollars. Now, you'll never hear an analyst say this—but I don't mind this—I could be wrong by 90%, and it's still worth $100,000." (to be honest, that's a bit of an impressive prediction in 2014) On the other hand, he probably didn't really believe his own prediction because in June, 2017 (when it was 2000 USD or so), he said: " “This is the most exponential move we have seen. I don’t know how far it goes, but I sold out last week… and I’ve [owned Bitcoin] since it was $200. Anything that moves exponentially, always [blows up].”" In 2016, "This view brings Pal to the asset he favors most over the next year out of bonds, equities, currencies and commodities: the dollar."
Eh, that was just two. I was hoping to mention several people, but it appears not many people are actually making predictions anymore, and anyone mentioned are basically not big people so I couldn't find much on them regarding bitcoin before 2019. So, the main thing I like to highlight are the analysts and such are going to make money whatever happens. Fund managers are playing with people's money and, as long as they are not involved in frauds, there is no real harm to them against wrong predictions. Generally, successful business people are successful because they were loud, confident, and were able to convince others that they had the right idea. Even when wrong, they bounce back. Most of us aren't like that. Some bitcoiners come here to boast when price goes up, as if the increase in price is an indication that argument against bitcoin has been proven wrong. While some people here are fanatically anti-bitcoin, I am not one of those. I have nothing against people making money (why would I be upset that people I don't know around the world became wealthier??). But since bitcoin investing is by design a zero sum game, certain people will eventually lose, and it is most likely it is the people who were listening to predictions by experts that would ultimately be financially hurt, and not the experts making the predictions. Crypto investing has been a platform where the average person works hard in his day to day life, and then brings the fruits of his labor into this field. The actual productive part of that person's life is the one outside crypto, where they had been productive for the community, and in exchange, they receive wages. Crypto investing's promise is for this wage to increase without the actual productivity. The concern is mainly that the result of all that labor will be misused by crypto "experts" who's own income (their labor) is directly linked to predictions on crypto. The above paragraph is badly explained, but the main point is that the average person brings in outside money they worked hard for, while "experts" there is generally no outside money, crypto fund management or consulting itself is their job. --- Money can be made, of course, but money being made isn't necessarily an argument for something. Bitcoin, and crypto, has for the past 1.5 decades still largely just about numbers going up. Google trend on "bitcoin" show top related queries being "bitcoin price", "bitcoin usd", "bitcoin usd price". When people come here when it hits a particular arbitrary price point thinking it's their gotcha moment, it actually just reinforces my argument that it is only about the price. Nothing in the history of human economy has ever lasted based only on the economic model of who you could resell it for at a higher price. Even DeFi's smart contracts (as much as I could understand it) is about prices going up. It's like for these people the concept of contracts are based purely on money exchanging hands, and no actual task being done. Almost all contracts globally are based on specific productive tasks being done, such as employee contract, supplier contract, property contract, and so on. Only a tiny amount of it is based on "if this currency goes up, then give me that currency" contracts. ---
I just met with an old friend, i remember she told me she invested 3 million Colombian peso in April, 2017 in Bitcoin. That was +/- $1,060 USD that time or +/- $9,400 today. When i told her how much it was worth today she was excited because today that's 36 million peso where i live. And she has a debt to pay to the bank on a loan for an apartment, especially now during the crisis that would put her out of debt instantly. So obviously i asked her if she still had the "seed" or wallet in a secure place, she didn't understand what i was asking. A bit deeper into the conversation she told me her son knew a guy to invest bitcoin, he told her that there was a flat fee of 1 million peso to open up a wallet and the other 2 million would be invested. I told her she got scammed, because she did not have the private key of her wallet and when she asked to get money from her investment this person again lied to her and told her that whats left of today is only 250,000 Colombian pesos or $65 USD. There was no contract or anything written on paper, the only thing as evidence she had was a mail on how much money they agreed to invest. I'm thinking now of offering some free/paid advice now trough online marketplaces in my city and country, people need to know they can open a wallet for free and how to purchase Bitcoins themselves and how they can secure their investments with a hardware wallet and how to sell their Bitcoin. I see daily stories on Reddit/TwitteFacebook of people getting scammed, ive also been selling hardware wallets trough my online store in my country ( i'm not an authorized distributor but i've prevented some scams where other online sellers sold opened/tampered wallets )
Analysis of good and bad advice for investing in Bitcoin
A common advice platitude that is carelessly thrown about in /Bitcoin is something to the effect of "Bitcoin is a speculative asset; no one can know how it will play out and it could go to zero. You should never invest more than you can afford to lose" I find this to be a particularly meaningless and nonsensical statement. First the assertion that Bitcoin is a speculative asset should immediately disqualify the person from giving advice. Not only does this statement reveal that the person making it does not know if Bitcoin is going to increase in value, it also implies that no one else can know this as well. This is a profoundly arrogant claim and is of no use. Contrast this to this article written by Pierre Rochard back in February of 2013. At the time of this article Bitcoin was worth $22/coin and was widely viewed as toy money and ridiculed as a joke. Pierre's article assesses the monetary policy of this "toy money" and concludes that it has a superior monetary policy to the US Federal Reserve and will therefore necessarily grow to overtake the US dollar and end the fed. Bitcoin has increased in value over 500x since Rochard's article was published. If you hear someone giving advice and they say that "no one can know if Bitcoin will succeed" they are revealing their profound ignorance of monetary economics and their arrogance that no one else could possibly know something they fail to understand. Conversely we have people who have looked at Bitcoin when it was considered a joke and correctly concluded it would grow to take over the global economy and kill every central bank in the process. It should be obvious who is more qualified to speak on the matter and who should be ignored. The last part of the advice is rather curious and reveals a glaring and very dangerous status quo bias. What is meant by "Do not invest more than you can afford to lose"? More importantly, if you choose not to invest in Bitcoin you are necessarily invested in something else. The investment in something else--USD perhaps, is dismissed as if that investment cannot lose. No one ever says "Do not invest more in the US Dollar than you can afford to lose", but perhaps they should. Considering the fact that the USD has been rapidly losing market share to a new currency competitor with a monetary policy unlike anything humanity has ever seen, perhaps this would be the best possible advice as it suggest there is a risk most people are unaware of. My personal advice to people is this- If you do not understand monetary economics you have no business investing in a currency because you have no idea what you are doing. Most people would agree with this if I state this with regard to Bitcoin, but it is also true for holding significant amounts of US Dollars. Currencies can and do fail; currencies perceived as stable and "strong" collapse when they encounter competition from a currency with a superior monetary policy. If you do not understand this, you should educate yourself perhaps starting with people who correctly predicted Bitcoin's rise when it was worth $22/coin.
You will see that this exchange has three sections. The first allows us to exchange MOONS (on the Rinkeby blockchain) to XMOONS (on the XDai blockchain, where Gas fees are paid in XDai rather than Eth). The second section allows us to exchange XMOONS for XDai. The third section allows us to exchange XDai for good old fashioned Ethereum (on the actual Ethereum blockchain).
Before we get started with any exchanging, we need to configure metamask a bit.
First up we are going to make Metamask show the MOONS that we have. To do this, change the network from 'Main Ethereum Network' to 'Rinkeby Test Network' at the top dropdown menu. Now click 'Add Token' and custom token. Now input the following:
Next we want to convert these xMoon's into xDai, however, we have to have some xDai in there in the first place to pay for the gas (remember that this xDai blockchain uses xDai to pay for gas not Eth!). To do this, buy some Dai (20 USD should do) in your favourite way (normal exchange, DeFi, etc.) and transfer it to your Metamask account Eth account (ON THE MAIN ETHEREUM BLOCKCHAIN, DON'T USE RINKEBY!). Also transfer around 10 USD worth of Eth to your metamask to cover any gas fees on the Main Ethereum Blockchain side of things.
Great, now while keeping Metamask on the Main Ethereum Blockchain, click DAI to xDAI and convert around10-20 USD.
Once this xDai has shown up (again could take a while), switch metamask back over to xDai blockchain and click xMOON to xDai (this should be fairly quick)
Now click xDai to Dai (might take a while again, don't panic like I did!)
You should now have Dai on the Ethereum blockchain held in your metamask (which you can see once you switch metamask back over to Main Ethereum)
Feel free now to do with the Dai whatever you wish! Send to an exchange and swap to BTC or Eth, keep a hold of in metamask etc etc
Please feel free to offer comments and corrections in the comments :) Edit 1: Typo fix!
Reviewing the top 50 cryptos as of 09/15/2020 revealed some interesting items to note. Of the 50, only 7 have negative ROI. Algorand has the second highest only to be bested by ZCash. Bitcoin ROI 7,877.04% Ethereum ROI 9000% Tether ROI 0.08% XRP ROI 4,069.93% Polkadot ROI 87.20% Bitcoin Cash ROI -57.41% Binance Coin ROI 9000% Chainlink ROI 7,138.70% Crypto.com Coin ROI 753.54% Litecoin ROI 1,038.67% Bitcoin SV ROI 86.21% Cardano ROI 335.74% EOS ROI 163.89% TRON ROI 1,282.96% USD Coin ROI -0.33% Tezos ROI 440.90% Stellar ROI 2,560.94% Stellar ROI 2,560.94% Monero ROI 3,532.85% Neo ROI 9000% UNUS SED LEO ROI 9.44% yearn.finance ROI 3,411.23% NEM ROI 9000% Huobi Token ROI 221.13% Cosmos ROI -22.64% UMA ROI 1,023.37% VeChain ROI -14.13% Aave ROI 3,941.56% IOTA ROI 9000% Dash ROI 9000% Dai ROI 2.57% Wrapped Bitcoin ROI 208.08% Ethereum Classic ROI 593.27% Zcash ROI -98.60% Ontology ROI -68.73% OMG Network ROI 568.78% TrueUSD ROI 0.12% Maker ROI 1,982.73% THETA ROI 242.81% Synthetix Network Token ROI 942.33% Compound ROI 55.26% Algorand ROI -89.10% OKB ROI 288.81% FTX Token ROI 284.56% Basic Attention Token ROI 46.2% Dogecoin ROI 403.98% Kusama ROI 2,271.36% BitTorrent ROI 181.38% 0x ROI 300.37% Celo ROI 211.42% NXM ROI 515.36% What does this say? To me, it says that this coin was not only overhyped, it was and is completely overvalued as of this date. It has a near -90% ROI. In my opinion, that means early investors didn’t get what they were expecting, the pre-ICO team was way off base, and the valuation was done by persons inexperienced with the crypto space. It’s hard to see how the miss could have been so far off. 77% (approx.) of eligible buyers took advantage of the early refund process. This says a lot about confidence of returns. The auction schedule has changed which now favors early backers/relay nodes in a questionable manner. And there is no information as to the next auction which leaves relay nodes as one of the few mechanisms by which large amounts of coins are introduced into the market. Billions of coins still need to enter the market and the process is to hold off on auctions and allow relay nodes and founders to stabilize the price via timing of the introduction of coins. In short, managed demand for a product that does not have the retail demand to move the price to near introduction price. Wrapped Bitcoin had a 6 month head start and an almost 300% difference in ROI. as far as Zcash, we won’t go there. But it is interesting to note that it uses some of Micali’s work and Zooko Wilcox-O’Hearn did reference prior works by Micali re: the Goldwasser-Micali-Rivest Signature Scheme. I may have to amend my prediction of ETH displacement by several years since it’s very unclear now as to when all coins will be in the market. Think about it, would you invest in a 401k that had a ROI of near -90% ? This isn’t FUD. Where most coins provided a reasonable valuation, Algorand for some odd reason had this ridiculous valuation which exposes the inexperience relative to the crypto space. “Let’s hire some folks, tell them what we FEEL it’s worth, and get some people to market it. Oops looks like we seriously overvalued this thing.” Schedule the auctions back to the original timeline. Let the price be dictated by the market as it needs to be. This will generate the needed demand and the price/valuation will be corrected by market forces and not a select group. Sure some will lose, but some will gain in the sell off. There is no way to moon if a select group regulates the influx of coins without a competing mechanism. This is not financial advice. Do your own research. This post is for entertainment purposes only.
The story of how I paid 90 USD for Modafinil worth 7$ (and waited a month for it).
I hope it's okay to re-post it here. I would hate to have it deleted from Reddit and I would really appreciate this community opinion. On 4th of September I ordered 50x Modalert 200mg from High Street Pharma. I paid with Bitcoin for extra 30% pills and 25% discount. In total I paid 90$ for order shipped from their EU warehouse: Exhibit A. 3 days later I got an email from them informing me of "stock problems" and asking:
is it fine if we ship Modaawake 200mg and Artvigil 150mg? (...) We will add extras for you.
I did some research on Modawake-200mg and discovered it is just cheaper version of Modalert. Getting Artvigil-150mg was actually great news for me, because I wanted to order it later from HSP anyway. It is still much cheaper than Modalert-200, but I assumed I will be getting some extras to make up the difference. Spoiler alert:I was wrong. After agreeing - I waited for my tracking number and stayed in touch with HSP customer service. I never had to wait long for reply. I was offered refund on 15th of September (11 days after ordering) if I don't get tracking number next day. Luckily I got it! Well... my order wasn't shipped on 16th, it was shipped 2 days later, but tracking code was generated on 16th, so technically HSP kept the promise. I had no idea Hungarian Post is so slow. It took 12 days to get to UK. One could walk this distance in 12 days! (Well, almost. It actually takes a little over 13 days). My parcel arrived shortly after, on 3rd of October: Exhibit B. What I found inside was really disappointing. All I got was 60 Modawake-200 pills! No Artvigil-150 at all! Not only that - my order was also 5 pills short (30% of 50 is 15, so I should get 65 pills). I've sent an email to HSP and I was told:
Unfortunately it is not allowed to cut the pills and ship. However we can add extra 5 with your next order. (...) There was no Artvigil in order that was placed so we didn't give that.
I've replied with (IMO) valid question - how are they going to add 5 pills if they can't cut it? I also reminded him what I agreed to - "is it fine if we ship Modaawake 200mgandArtvigil 150mg?" . Now - you may say I'm being difficult. It's the same substance, I was short only 5 pills and I misunderstood them in the first place. Maybe you're right, but do you know "Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price" [per 10 tabs] of different brands of Modafinil?
As you can see - I paid 90$ for pills worth 6.54$ + shipping from Hungary to UK (30 days long shipping). I know paying 90$ for 65x Modalert-200 (MSRP 21.71$) is not much better, but... it still is3 times better! Next time you get all excited about the amazing 20%!, 25%!, 30%! off and all those extra pills! you're getting from your amazing vendor! - remember how much money he actually makes off you. I really hope my story won't end here and HSP will get back to me (it is weekend after all!). Obviously I will keep you guys updated! If you're curious why there's such a big difference in price between brands of the same product: first three are manufactured by HAB and the last two by SunPharma. There should be MSRP (MRP) per 10 tablets printed on every blister pack you got - "Rs" stands for Indian Rupee ₹.
Under conditions like this, this will be YOUR fate in 2050 and beyond. And warning: This will piss people off, and it will not be Shangri-La. End of the Liberal Democratic System You still have the democratic system we call "Liberal Democracy" these days. AKA the delusion of being able to choose better candidates for your ruler. Unfortunately this is not the case any longer past 2050. Leaders are EXPLICITLY stated to be lifetime rule in all nations, and are literal emperors that will rule until they die. If they take off for whatever reason, they will inherit that seat with a trusted confidant aka their closest associate. Another trait of a liberal democracy is free speech, or your ability to question the government or the truth. This will again no longer exist. If you ever so deny the "[Democratic American Republic of Bananas] Holocaust of Chinese expats", "Trump is a tyrant who destroyed the United States" or "Covid is a deadly illness" fake facts, They will put you to a mental health check. If they screened you and/or it turns out that you are a "God Worshiper", "Conspiracy Theorist" or anyone who doesn't agree with Marxist Humanist ideology, you will be sent to a camp to be gassed and never come out again. Covid Measures You really don't think the Covid measures end after a year don't you? It's a non-existent and neverending crisis. Yes, Covid Policies will persist as soon as earth exists. And these policies are bound to DRIVE PEOPLE INSANE. Forced Masks, Social Distancing, Forced quarantines.......you named it. It's there. Bars, pubs, theme parks, public schools, small businesses etc will go to the way of the dodo. Save for big companies with extraorbitant prices selling foods, electronics or other necessities, nothing will exist around the streets. If you walk out of the streets without a mask, an enforcer will ambush and kill you. You can't even dine outside, you have to dine at home. Curfews are forced unless under certain conditions, save for right before announcing Covid pandemics or any other emergencies, such as terror attacks, UFO fear mongering, anarchists... Failure to comply will result in government hired fixers catching you to the camp and slitting your head with a mechanical blade. Oh and the only business bar big companies that are still around are... Which brings to the next point: Legalized Killing Gone were the days where killing is illegal. If they can make LGBT and Pedophilia legal and a lifestyle, why not make killing one as well? The new society is going to stress LOTS of people out, to the point that they will kill at the slightest of a whim. If bars, pubs, theme parks, small businesses etc got driven to extinction, what do you think their employees will do? They go out and KILL! Piss people off by the slightest bit such as telling to them "Covid is fake," then at the next day, civilian conduct patrols will come in and kill you. Killing, Harvesting organs, cannibalism etc...will become the DE FACTO lifestyle. And because of Covid policies, most businesses will not be able to survive the cataclysm. And those who cannot find a job or get their job destroyed cannot conduct an uprising against big elite. If you want to conduct a popular uprising, you NEED other elites to back you. So what do they do? They kill. You will see more killers, bodyguards, and cannibals than there are store clerks because it's the only thing that can make you money in the true new normal. Even civilians want nothing to do with it will go out and feast on the flesh of their close ones, not out of betrayal, but to survive. And you better off not go out during certain times of the day because there will be so many cannibals or mafia gangs patrolling the streets waiting to catch any unsuspecting bystander. Save for feral cannibals or angry civilians, there's also the risk of mafia and other conducted kill squads, such as the aforementioned civilian patrols, hired mercenary and hitman groups, as well as chefs (with many of them being former angry civilians). These things had long lost their humanity, and if you get reported to them, be it tax evasion, NEET, homeless, or even muttering "Hail Trump" or the Bible and got heard, you will be caught by these paid killers and die. The chefs are the worst because they are cannibals who will basically catch anyone and everyone to get them killed, for no reason. In certain places, infant mortality rate is expected to be 99% and the number of people who can grow to adulthood is an estimated 0.5% of the population (around the population of NYC, for example) End of free media Save for the aforementioned no tolerance anti thought crime laws, expect the same to happen on the internet and the TV. Everyday, after you come back home after a hard day killing the undesireables, you turn on the TV and watch the same 3 programs on an infinity loop. If you wanna use the computer, remember that all websites had been put under Google, Amazon or Facebook rule (assuming if these companies ever existed or similar ones replaced them), and around only 20 sites exist and all of them are big on pro-state propaganda as North Korea. Modern CCP doesn't even describe it. It will resemble North Korean internet, where not a single trace of anti-truth can exist, in general. Video Games will all be first person shooters or political propaganda, such as WWIII or the BLM Revolution. (Anime or Weeb culture will also cease to exist because it will be considered derogatory pedophilia or disgraces against women. Yet pedophillia is actually getting legitimized in the new world, and children can be killed as easily as adults.) Healthcare of Death You have to go screen yourself for health issues daily to monthly depending on the type. Covid Screenings are daily, Mental Health Screenings are monthly, Cancer, Diabetes, cholestrol yearly scans... Failure to pass the Covid and Mental health screenings will put you to a quarantine cell to be gassed, no exceptions. Failure to pass the yearly ones will result in medication until death. These scannings are all robotic and turn out false positives in a 20-30% rate. Also, you have to be vaccinated every 6 months, these are poisonous chemicals but it doesn't matter. Also there's no such thing as a Covid vaccine because Covid doesn't exist. Who cares if you die anyway in a society like this? Surveillance State Expect LOTS and LOTS of Cameras. You might not need to know where these cameras lead to, but expect installment of surveillance cameras as a part of the law. They will be all over the streets, your television, the ceiling of your house, the fridge, your business, whatever. In truth, the images transmit into neighbor committees, mafia offices, hired enforcer offices, other assorted kill squads...just to facilitate these groups to arrest and kill you inside your house. The reasons can be you homeschooling children, you lacking a job, you lacking education, you being depressed, you worshiping god, you muttering anti-truth, you not wearing masks when you go out, you gather with with more than 4 people... But if you know less, the better. Paying the price Everything is taxed or expensive as hell in the new world. The currency used is Bitcoin, and a normal killing job will only give you 6 bitcoins per month. (There are better jobs out there giving around hundreds, but it will not be for you at least) Most necessities cost more than 18 bitcoins and food or water will cost around 0.40 bitcoins. They will tax you 1 Bitcoin a month, possibly more. Failure to comply to the tax will result in 2 warnings. Each warning, 2 days. At the end of 2 days, government enforcers will arrive to the spot and catch you to be gassed. Cashless Society Related to the point above, you no longer need cash. Cash is obsolete, and bitcoin will take its place. 1 Bitcoin is over 10000 USD. Also it will be done by Microchip. But do not expect you YOURSELF to be microchipped. You might be required to have an extra gadget in your phone or a special wristband. Anyone without the wristband or the gadget, even at home, will be murdered fast. The wristband or phone gadget is another one of those ways they watch over you; but they will be your only way of pay. You will not be able to pay or get money without this phone gadget or wristband, and again enforcers will give you 1 hour of time to get 1 before you get gassed. One of these gadgets or wristbands will cost 4 bitcoins, and phones might as well as cost 18 bitcoins for an average quality smartphone, and a high quality smartphone 30. Report Happy Neighbours Neighbors, associates or even your children and educated and programmed to report you for the slightest of issues. Failure to fulfill a certain dress code of your organization. Muttering God, Freedom, Anti-Marxism, Conspiracies, Anti Truth, or speaking it on social media or Discord. Being an emotionally unstable mess. No school or work. (School is always internet school while work is always necessary services, killings/bodyguards/snitchers or any combination of these.) Not wearing a mask when you go outside. All but one of the many reasons why you can be reported by neighbors and even your children. If they decided to report and remove you for the following reasons, some type of authority will go in and murder you in a few hours. Political Correctness Like I ALWAYS said before, in the new world, beware of what you say in the public. This includes in places like Discord or Twitter. If you ever slip out any semblances of anti truth, holocaust denial, covid denial, religious babble etc... Yeah, authorities knock your door and send you to be gassed, no exceptions. Thoughtcrime doesn't result in just a chatroom ban, authorities knock on your door and send you to be gassed. Forced Education If you think that Covid equals no education, you are wrong. Public schools do not exist as face to face tutoring and resemble database facilities. However, your children have to be homeschooled by authorities every time of the day. The subjects will be very dull, incoherent, boring and sometimes radical like some sort of anarchist or military training. However, your child is explicitly stated not to be able of leaving their PC desk during classes, for more than 20 minutes. Because the computers are cameras themselves, the images of your students will be transmitted to the teacher inside the "school." Failure to comply and the authorities will take your children and you. Same occurs if your children is homeschooled or is off from school for no reason within 6 days. This includes not having a PC to begin with; a PC costs 30 Bitcoins. Forced Labor You HAVE to go to work, no matter what. Work is a part of life, and as soon as you are in the age of 15, you must find a work. Most people will have to find one and plan one from the age of 10. This can arrange from killings, mafia, organ harvesting, bodyguards, take-out restaurants, store clerks... You HAVE to find one. Usually, if you are not one of the more privileged class, you have to go out and kill. Mercy isn't an option in these cases. No matter what the excuse is, saint or devil, you gotta kill them. The higher the body count, the greater the talent, the higher the ranks you are. This also means that you must stay fit at all costs. People who are not physically fit will not qualify, so are merciful people. The more angry, brave, obedient, and warfare-efficient you are the better. Your life is at risk, every day, but nobody cares. Some of the people will be able to not spill blood with their own hands and find a slightly better job such as being a doctor, government official, concentration camp warden or even a teacher. But don't expect this to be you. Altered lifespans Because of all the GMOs, air pollution, fixer killings, mentally ill bozos, cannibals, mafia gangs....the lifespans of people will be drastically altered. Most people will be chronically ill at the age of 50, and past the age of 45 you cannot be allotted any jobs. The fixer and killer groups will only hire people starting from as young as 10 and as old as 30. Infant mortality rate can arrange from 50% on lowest and 99% on highest, and chances to survive till adulthood is approximately 40% on average. In some places, this is below 0.5%. If you happen to survive past the age of 60, you will be exterminated instantly. This is a benefit for the government because 1. You can't find anymore jobs or unable of production 2. to reduce spreading of Covid, a non-existent illness. War on Terror No matter what, the world 2050 and beyond will not be peaceful. "Wars on Terror" will still occur. Anarchist false flags groups (similar to Black Block and ISIS) built by the government, Covid pandemic waves, reptilian UFO false flags/fear mongering, Religious terrorists...ALL of these will continue to occur and in overly insane degrees to keep you scared. Most notably, expect the Covid pandemic EVERY 4 months where the whole country will fall on lockdown for a month. All of these aren't going anywhere but to keep you terrified and depressed. Paid Fixers/Killers will be prohibited to deal with any of these terror groups for unknown reasons just because the Government has to solve them. The government catches these terrorists and releases them, if there are any terrorists. White and Black Ethnics The world will be split into two parts. A part with polyglot populations who has every possible mixed race, and others who can maintain racial purity and are more than willing to commit genocide against anyone opposed to their race. Most notably, Europe and the US will resemble Babylon. There will be countless ghettos, filled with all sorts of ethnicities crammed in pint size ghettos, with fights all over the place. As they call it "legs made of steel and clay." The fun thing is, Kill Groups or gangs will only hire the same race, and it makes you harder to find a job. The other side will be consisted of fully racially brainwashed idiots who were taught pure eugenics and inferiorities. They will be indoctrinated in a way like the Nazis, Russians, Japanese and CCP educates their offspring. It usually happens in Asian or non pro-western states such as: Japan, Both Koreas, China, Russia, Malaysia... Expect these people to be ethno-supremacist and willing to kill anyone of the opposing race. (Such as Taiwanese and Japanese will happily kill Chinese, Chinese will happily kill Indians or Japanese, Russians might want to kill Americans...the inverse is true of all things.) You can't form to rebel against the NWO or anything with these Babylonian or white law neighbors or countries. So beware. You HAVE to wake up right now. This will be a rude awakening, and if this ever happens, your life will not even matter 5 cents. The brick wall behind the curtain doesn't only have cuffs, it has spikes as well. This is your fate in society, 2050 and beyond. All these confrontations, cancelling, and isolation will be worth it if this is YOUR fate and you realize it.
Hunting Scammers... 8/16/20 If you don’t care about the background skip to: [************************************************] So... I am in a unique position where I am aware of new and old scams daily. I often help those that are wronged and I frequently pass this information along to family so they don’t fall prey... Recently my mother told me that she was a victim of a scam, but not just a few hundred dollars, not a few thousand... She got taken for around $125,000, 401k cleaned out, retirement gone, second mortgage, credit cards opened and maxed out, sold her car, loans taken out and emptied... How did they do it? They hacked a Facebook account of one of her cousins and that compromised account blasted out the message: “Hey I just got a grant from the IDA (Independent Development Association) I saw your name on the list, did you get your $150,000 check yet?” That spiral led into her texting an “agent” who got all of her information and told her that she needed to pay for the secure courier which was $1,000... Months go by with regular contact, always a new “problem” like “the check got delayed here for a customs check and you need to pay $500”. They told her that she was bound to secrecy as if she told anyone beyond my step dad, they would be disqualified. They told her that they needed to monitor her phone calls to make sure she didn’t tell anyone, they provided her with a “court order subpoena” which was obviously fake, but she didn’t know. They logged into her cell account and ordered 20+ new iPhone 11 Pro Max from her cell provider on her credit. Then they actually paid her account for 2 months before ghosting her... They hacked her Facebook and tried to recruit more people into their scam... It was always a promise of more money if you do this or that... $150,000 then $250,000 all the way to $750,000... [************************************************] Preface: Always be safe when scam hunting/baiting Use an encrypted email (ProtonMail is free) Use a good proxy/VPN (pay for it, it’s worth it) NEVER give out your personal details I got all the information from my mother about: The phone number she texted. The person she talked to. Where/who she shipped the cell phones to. Where/who she sent cash to. (1) First contact/a little payback From that I started by contacting the scammer... My Facebook is already locked down so the information you get from my profile is very little, I reached out to my mother’s compromised FB through messenger and got a bite. They told me to text a number from the US to which I happily obliged. I used a texting app in conjunction with a VPN on my computer running a VM (virtual machine) I can control all the information released like OS, browser and such if they know how to look it’ll all be spoofed. I spoke with the scammer who had me “fill out a form” and he was working from a script, which is hard to break them from... This form he sent me, he accidentally forgot to clear it off from the last person he scammed so I had all of the information from the victim *I immediately call this guy and saved him before he sent any money luckily. So I digress, I occupy the scammers time for about 6 hours, giving him issues and excuses finally getting him off script. He directs me to a “local” bitcoin ATM to send a deposit of $1,500. I go through a host of issues while he gave me his first BTC address. I google a good picture of a bitcoin ATM and began photoshopping error messages until I had an epiphany... I told the scammer that the machine was giving me an error that his account was unverified and that he needed to “mirror” the transaction by first sending me $1,500 to unlock the transfer and it would be immediately refunded and my “$1,500” would be sent too. Unfortunately it didn’t work, so he gives me the second BTC address. What do ya know, same error lol... After a back and forth for about an hour, I couldn’t believe it, he agreed to “mirror” the transaction... So I scrambled to get a clean BTC address and sent it to him. He agreed to send $200 to see if it worked... Low and behold I just received $200... So what do I do next? Give in? No. I just changed the photoshop to say “Pending $1,300” now lol... He bit, hard. After more talking and pretending to be a helpless 64 year old guy with $20,000 ready to give him the scammer saw green and got greedy... More debate, more discussion, he sent another $500. Give in now? No... Back to photoshop... “Pending $800” To cut it short, he sure as hell sent the other $800... After a back and forth I sent him doctored up transaction receipts saying it was all transferred back to him. Getting him off script and getting him to pay a fraction of what he stole, is that enough? No. I promptly withdrew the money and gave it to my mom, it wasn’t much but just a little victory for now... (2) Finding the mules The next day the scammer cuts all contact with me, so I spoof a new number and call him. It rings and goes to voicemail and I hear his voice, sounds distorted with a British accent but broken English, I assume African. I leave only my telephone number on the recording saying “call me back” (we’ll come back to this) I move on to the places the phones were sent, first up, an apartment complex about an hour from me. But I’m not looking for a direct contact situation as I don’t know who or what they’re capable of... So I get the shipping details and find a very unique name but for Reddit we’ll call her Mrs. “E”. I begin tearing into her life, public records, credit report info, and phone records, I get it all... Time to make contact, I send an unassuming text to her number, asking for help. Surprisingly she responded, I began by asking her about a shipment she got in and the name of the shipping company she was receiving packages for. Radio silence for a few hours, then the denial began... I hit her with the hard facts, and just enough information so she knows I know everything about her... Mrs. E breaks and gives me the info I need. She was contacted by a friend who owns a shipping company in Lagos, Nigeria, they asked her to take the package of iPhones and forward them to him via another courier service. Mrs. E gave me everything. Next is Mrs. R who my mother sent actual cash to... I looked up the address and find it’s a duplex in Midwest. So I do a quick search of the name and nothing comes up... I then use the County Assessment District to get the public tax records and owner information. I contact the owner and give him the name I have and explain why I’m looking for her information. He gave me all the details he could as Mrs. R is the girlfriend of his tenant and the name I had was wrong. Waiting to get Mrs. R’s records right now I’ll get everything on her just like Mrs. E, she’ll bend to my will. (3) International Phone Calls So while I was searching for Mrs. R’s records I get a phone call... It’s a Nigerian number... I answered and find out it’s my scammer that I left a message for... This genius calls me from his actual cell number, which is not the number I called and left a message for. Currently working on getting his subscriber information but it’s proving hard (if anyone can help reply). I call up the owner of the shipping company in Nigeria and tell him that I’m looking for shipping details and quotes, I’m still working on his information... He’s a pleasant person to talk to, I will ruin him... So that’s where I’m at for now, but I definitely will keep you all updated. Mini-update 8/16/20: The owner of the shipping company apologized that his courier service had anything to do with the transactions. I’m not sure if I believe that but he did give me a name and 2 phone numbers he had on file for the customer. I’m really needing someone who can check these numbers out... If I can get a carrier identified I can work my magic on them to get the info I need. Update #1: 8/17/2020 Today I got all of Mrs. “R”s info minus good contact information... Pitty... But I’ll find it. The number on her file with her last loan didn’t pan out... I’ll come back to this tomorrow... I back traced the scammers cell phones with a little help from a friend, both phones are confirmed cell phones with active service with 2 different cell phone providers in Nigeria. I’m still lacking on the subscriber information, but I know where to look now... I reached out to the Nigerian Police Force to see if they can help, I doubt they can but you never know what you can get without asking... The scammer himself reached out to another dummy account I set up. I gave him a little scare, he asked who referred me to him... I gave him his own name, he hasn’t responded yet... https://imgur.com/gallery/EvfLcgy Update #2: 8/31/2020 So after name dropping the scammer I got dead silence. Luckily I was able to capture his IP address. I worked with a few contacts I made and found he was using the “Text Now” app, did a little magic and found out the “main scammer” actually is working in a call center. But interestingly enough I found that the workers there on average make like $500usd a month... (more on that later) So I have numerous fake Facebook accounts optimized for international connections, even though they look and are set up American, with them connected to the profiles from Africa or Russia, you can set your profile up to show up to them first, and you’ll be flooded with friends and messages... Another scammer reached out to me and I played along and made friends with them. I ran a game on him for a little bit and just came out and told him what I was trying to do. I asked him to help me, but it was off how he was replying, I called him on the phone and he told me that he was “busy in the office”. So he ghosted me, or so I thought... I get a text message from a Nigerian number that I did not know a few hours later. He tells me that he was the one I was talking to, he went on to explain that everything they do is monitored, there are about 20 of them in this room with computers, and several cell phones at their station. This guy goes on to explain that he controls about 15 different profiles, as many phone numbers as he can, and several emails, all of which are for scamming. So I think I’ve just developed an asset in Nigeria........ He has agreed to help me for money. He explained to me that he pulls on average $40,000 usd a month, I don’t know if that figure is true, but it’s believable... Mr. Asset goes on to tell me that if they hit their goal they make $250 a month, and for every so many $$$’s above their goal they get bonuses. So ladies and gents’ I’ve got boots on the ground. (Hopefully) I’ll keep you all updated. Not officially an update but figured I’d share it anyway! https://www.reddit.com/SuicideWatch/comments/ikfno1/went_looking_to_ruin_a_life_ended_up_saving_one/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
For newcomers: Criminal charges filed against BitMEX. Why this is a good thing for crypto
BitMEX, a centralized cryptocurrency exchange, was recently charged by the United States CFTC with failing to prevent money laundering and failing to implement other basic compliance procedures. For those unfamiliar with BitMEX: BitMEX is a trading platform that offers investors access to the global financial markets using only Bitcoin. BitMEX is built by finance professionals with over 40 years of combined experience and offers a comprehensive API and supporting tools. Gee, that doesn't sound so bad. Basically, you can buy and sell bitcoin on BitMEX. So what's the big deal? Well, from the BitMEX site: Does BitMEX offer leverage? Yes, BitMEX offers leverage on all of its products. The highest leverage BitMEX offers is up to 100x leverage on its Perpetual Bitcoin / USD Perpetual Contract. Okay, but what is leveraged trading exactly? According to thebalance.com, "100:1: One-hundred-to-one leverage means that for every $1 you have in your account, you can place a trade worth up to $100. This ratio is a typical amount of leverage offered on a standard lot account. The typical $2,000 minimum deposit for a standard account would give you the ability to control $200,000."
And herein lies my first issue with an unregulated exchange like BitMEX. When used in the crypto-space, I think leverage is some fucked up shit. With massive amounts of leverage, whales can manipulate the price of bitcoin while little fish like you and I are at the mercy of the gods. If the whales want to move the price higher, they can coordinate a leveraged 'attack' to increase the price of bitcoin. If they want to drop the price of bitcoin, they can similarly coordinate a massive sell off. This is often visualized as those exaggerated green and red spikes on a trading chart sending the price of bitcoin through lines of resistance or support. This, in turn, can then trigger further exaggerated selloffs. Additionally, inexperienced traders have little to no business trading on leveraged accounts. The vast majority of those who try will walk away in a world of pain carrying a huge loss on their shoulders. But... if some schmuck goes all in on leverage and loses their investment and goes broke, isn't that their fault? Well, yes. That would be a tough pill to swallow, but technically yes, it's their fault. But rather than laugh and point at this person, shouldn't we be encouraging others to embrace cryptocurrency? I think leverage exposes all the wrong things about trading cryptocurrency, yet leverage is exactly how centralized exchanges like BitMEX make their money. This leads me to my second point.
Criminal charges against a centralized exchange facilitates the need for decentralized exchanges. What the hell is a decentralized exchange? From wikipedia: A decentralized exchange (DEX) is a cryptocurrency exchange which operates in a decentralized way, i.e., without a central authority. Decentralized exchanges allow peer-to-peer trading of cryptocurrencies. Because users do not need to transfer their assets to the exchange, decentralized exchanges reduce the risk of theft from hacking of exchanges. Decentralized exchanges can also prevent price manipulation or faked trading volume through wash trading, and are more anonymous than exchanges which implement know your customer requirements. I remember when I first heard about decentralized exchanges I thought to myself... this is going to be huge! But then, no one seemed to share my excitement. Coinbase continued to thrive, followed by the likes of BitMEX and other centralized exchanges. Then, one by one, hack after hack, I finally began to see people move toward decentralized exchanges like uniswap.
I mentioned in another post that we are still in the early stages of crypto development. While bitcoin has been around for over a decade, we are just now beginning to gain traction in other areas of innovation and growth. If there was ever a time to break out of the same corrupt pattern of conventional finance, now is the time!
Reporting taxes on earnings from sports betting that were withdrawn in Bitcoin.
Hello. I am depositing money at a sportsbetting website via crypto since there are no fees for doing it this way. I need help figuring out which transactions here will be taxable so I can report my taxes correctly. I will list every transaction I believe I will be taking. Please tell me which transactions are taxable events and what forms I will use to report them to the IRS correctly.
Buy 5000 USD of Bitcoin on an exchange.
Send Bitcoin to sports betting website such as mybookie.ag.
mybookie.ag receives 5000 USD of Bitcoin and immediately converts it to USD.
Place bet in USD, win, payout is 15,000 USD.
Receive 15,000 USD in the form of Bitcoin, send to Coinbase, sell Bitcoin immediately, receive roughly 15,000 USD.
In this list of actions, my cost basis for Bitcoin was 5000 USD since I originally bought 5000 USD worth of BTC and then sent it to the sports betting website. I then received 15,000 USD worth of Bitcoin after winning the bet, which I sold on Coinbase, so my net profit from the trade was 10,000 USD. Now my question is - Do I report this on the Schedule D as a profitable Bitcoin trade, or do I report it on the W-2G as a profitable gambling winnings transaction? Do I have to report it on both, resulting in me being taxed twice on my 10,000 USD profit even though I should only be getting taxed once since it is a single winning? How does the IRS know I should only be getting taxed a single time and that the 10,000 profit from Bitcoin is the same as the 10,000 profit from winning the bet? I don't want to pay taxes on 20,000 USD when I only won 10,000 USD. Essentially from the IRS perspective, I fear they will incorrectly assume I won 10,000 USD AND 10,000 USD worth of BTC when in reality I only won 10,000 USD which I withdrew as BTC.
Earn 51-$171 using my referral codes to learn about crypto through Coinbase! Plus! if we verify you used my links, ill give you an additional $5 in for the links you completed. Payout is instant upon completion, no gimmicks!
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Altogether there are 6 different lessons, each takes like 5-10 mins with a quiz at the end. Only 3 of them i will get rewarded for though. You will also get an extra $10 for each completed for my referral + $51 from all 6 quizzes and also another $120 if you get 4 people to do the quizzes. They are really quick, especially if already have an account. Also you can look up the answers for each one on google so you dont need to sit through them, be even quicker. Please complete the 3 i sent the links with to the end so we get 10$ reward extra. As soon as you finish they send you the coins into coin base account. Once they are in your account you can sell them instantly for $$, and transfer to your bank account, OR you can keep them on your account. EOS, and COMP have been doing really well, so they might be worth keeping. This is just a really good promotion, probably one of the better i’ve see. Its easy AF, quick, and the reward is really good. If you don’t know anything about crypto, i highly suggest you learn. It’s still very early and its growing super quick. cryptocurrency has gained a ton of attention in the past couple years and is actually starting to become a real actual currencies (already is, but according to our governments) many different types of crypto is starting to become accepted in a bunch of stores, realtors are taking as payment for a house, and colleges are even accepting as tuition. I started researching bitcoin a short amount of time after Satoshi Nakamoto released it (2009) and bought my first few in 2013 at 15$!! From early 2013 the price was about $11 USD and at the end of 2017, $20,000. But they fell and recovered as the stock market does. But the 24-hour trading Volume today, in 2020 is is INSANE ($20,690,383,231) with an even crazier market cap of $209,783,036,693, which by the middle-end of next month should reach $210 billion, possibly sooner. Its just a really smart investment, buy a little over time. Some analysts are predicting that BTC could reach anywhere from $100k to $1,000,000 for BTC in the next few years. Im not sure exactly where i would name the price in 5 years, but know there is only a limited supply of BTC. They are mined (basically just means that the transactions and blocks on the ledger or blockchain are verified) by sophisticated pieces of hardware called ASIIC miners, or some even use GPU, and CPU in expensive computers. Although CPU mining can be very inefficient anymore as the mathematical calculations and problems the miners need to solve get more and more complicated over time. This, the limited supply, the increasing interest, usability, and need for blockchain technology all add the the idea of BTC reaching such incredibly high futures. Their is a total of 20,999,976 bitcoin and that is it. With a total of 18,517,418.75 in circulation. The last BTC is estimated to be 2140. Big difference from the 18.5M mined in 10 years, right? Thats because of the halving. Anyway, I’m sure you have heard some things about BTC, probably from the media, and if it was, it probably wasn’t good. You probably heard that people buy illegal dangerous stuff off of the “Darknet” and that its completely untraceable. Or that money can be laundered through BTC. But that is hardly partly true for BTC and other cryptocurrencies, and completely true for the USD. While the blockchain doesn’t include any personal information connected to wallets (unless you want it there, or you have the wallet through a service that makes you use personal information, which many services are doing), all transactions can still be tracked and seen by anyone who has an internet connection at https://www.blockchain.com. So if the identity of one of the wallet addresses is known, it would be easier to figure the other out. But for paper, money that cannot be said... completely untraceable, has been prone to money laundering since it’s inception, can be used to purchase various drugs—hookers, guns, dynamite, and even politicians... since its inception, without a trace. The reason not just bitcoin, but i think even more exciting, is just blockchain technology and a host of things that are coming with it. It can be used for tons of things, software and can be built directly into blockchains, they can hold and process data at enormous speeds, while being extremely, extremely secure. More secure in a lot ways than banks. There are tons of new cryptocurrency projects being started everyday. For the most part, all of these projects have some sort of token integrated, because its what powers, and processes the data. If people find the project interesting or a great idea you like you’ll be able to invest in it buy buying/selling, or holding the token/coin. When these projects gain enough traction by like-minded individuals, the coin gains a value. This value can then be exchanged for other crypto, or traded directly for Fiat currencies ($,€,₽,¥,£,₩). For some examples of how wonderful the community is, and reveal what the true nature of blockchain and crypto was founded on, ill list 3 of my favorite crypto projects of 2020 so far along with a little excerpt from the white paper or other:
AIDCOIN: “allows websites to embed a widget into their website and accept donations in any cryptocurrency. Any donated crypto is transferred into AID token, which is also a stable coin. At first, this might seem like not such a good thing but the more I looked into it, the more I realized accepting a stable coin might actually make more sense for a charity as it reduces their risk exposure to volatility.”
BRAVE BROWSER—Privacy Internet Browser: “As far as I’m concerned, keeping people safe and protecting their privacy and security is a noble endeavor. For far too long, giants like Google and Facebook have gotten away with unethical data practices with nothing more than a slap on the wrist. They have been able to spy on their users, abuse their data and use it for whatever purpose they deem fit. Brave Browser is looking to put an end to that through the most secure browser that exists on the market today.” Basically Brave takes on the responsibility of completely protecting privacy and from ads. As an added available option, brave allows you, to watch and look at sponsored ads while you browse. So basically just a stand-in for other browsers ads, but instead you make money WITH brave. You are awarded BAT (Basic Attention Token) for your service. BAT’s are currently at .21¢.
Power Ledger: Last but not least. Power Ledger is probably one of my favorite projects that is actually making a real use-case out of crypto and blockchain. They are aiming to disrupt the energy sector with a heightened focus on renewable energy. Their software allows for three core things: 1. Energy Trading (if you have excess energy from your solar panels, for example, you can trade that to your neighbor through Power Ledger). 2. Environmental commodities trading (to help for the reliable tracking of renewable energy credits). 3. Renewable asset ownership (This will allow people who cannot afford their own renewable energy set-up to invest in fractional ownership). I honestly think Power Ledger is doing God’s work and wish them all the best.
As those projects above outlined, the basic principles behind pretty much every currency and upcoming project i have ever seen is, Trust, Sharing profit with the users who help make it into what it becomes, actual transparency, no central authority (due to decentralization), and lastly i believe it gives opportunity to those who are out if opportunity’s way. This is because it reaches so far, like into oppressive governments and 3rd work countries. Anyways, i hope to have given you a little insight during this read. Crypto has so much potential to fill and has already done so much. Looking forward to seeing where else all of this goes.
How Much is 1 Bitcoin Worth Today and Beyond the Daily Price of BTC. Bitcoin has been around for nearly ten years and during that time period, BTC became and remained the top popular cryptocurrency in the market, weighing over 110 billion dollars in its market capitalization. While Bitcoin moved down by -67% against the fiat in the course of the last 10 months, since making its record price of ... he CoinDesk Bitcoin Calculator converts bitcoin into any world currency using the Bitcoin Price Index, including USD, GBP, EUR, CNY, JPY, and more. USD [US Dollar] BTC [Bitcoin] 0.01 US Dollar = 0.000001 Bitcoin: 0.1 US Dollar = 0.000008 Bitcoin: 1 US Dollar = 0.000077 Bitcoin: 2 US Dollar = 0.000155 Bitcoin: 3 US Dollar = 0.000232 Bitcoin: 5 US Dollar = 0.000386 Bitcoin: 10 US Dollar = 0.000773 Bitcoin: 20 US Dollar = 0.001546 Bitcoin: 50 US Dollar = 0.003864 Bitcoin: 100 US Dollar = 0 ... Bitcoin is currently worth $ as of the time you loaded this page. How Much was 1 Bitcoin Worth in 2009? Bitcoin was not traded on any exchanges in 2009. Its first recorded price was in 2010. Technically, Bitcoin was worth $0 in 2009 during its very first year of existence! How Much was 1 Bitcoin Worth in 2010? Bitcoin's price never topped $1 in ... Reibungslos und schnell Bitcoins verkaufen in Wörth am Rhein (76744) Sie wollen in Wörth am Rhein Bitcoins verkaufen? Dann heißen wir Sie herzlich willkommen auf unserem Portal „Bitcoin vor Ort“. Der Bitcoin, der meist BTC abgekürzt wird, ist nun schon seit ein paar Jahren immer gefragter.Das gilt natürlich auch in Wörth am Rhein und Umkreis.
How Much Is 1 Bitcoin Worth? What Is One BTC Worth? - YouTube
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